Counterfactual

I have a writing exercise that I sometimes do with clients. It’s called the Bank Robbery Scenario.

Imagine for a moment that you walk into a bank. There are at least 50 other people in the bank. Suddenly a bank robber runs in and, to get everyone’s attention, he fires his weapon once. And of all the 50 people in the bank, the bullet hits you, and you are shot in the arm.

The exercise is to write down how you would describe to your friends and family, not just the event itself, but how you perceive it. In this scenario, are you lucky or unlucky? Explain why you “feel” the circumstances of this event are fortunate or unfortunate.

Now, you don’t have to write anything down, but at least take a moment to pause and think about this for yourself. How would you respond?

What’s interesting about this exercise is that I never what the response will be. Because while it is more common for people to feel unfortunate, there are those who see this as a fortunate outcome.

For the people who consider themselves unfortunate they will say things like:

• How bad was my timing! If I’d picked a different bank or come a little earlier or a little later, this thing would have never happened to me. The chance of something like this happening is so tiny and yet I’m the one experiencing it
• If there is a bullet in my arm, I don’t see how this can be anything but unlucky
• I started the day feeling healthy and by the end, I’ve been in an ambulance and in hospital with a gunshot wound. Unfortunate is the only way to describe this
• I’m a good person, surely of all 50 people in that bank, someone must have been more deserving of being shot than me

For the people who see the scenario as fortunate, they say things like:

• Of all the places to be shot, being shot in the arm isn’t as bad as it could have been
• If the bullet was a little further over, I would have been killed, of course I feel fortunate
• It’s incredible that no one else got hurt. There were a lot more people in the bank and we are all alive to tell the story. It’s a miracle it turned out so well

This is a thought experiment, so there really isn’t a right answer; it is simply about perception. But what makes someone decide if this is lucky or unlucky? The invention of a counterfactual.

(Note: The Bank Robbery Scenario is an exercise that I learnt about many years ago and comes from Scott Abel’s Food Issues And You: Workbook.)

What Is A Counterfactual?

Despite counterfactual being a word that isn’t used very often, it is a style of thinking that you (and I) do on a regular basis.

It is thinking about what did not happen but could have happened.

And typically, when we are doing this, we are comparing it to what did happen to determine if this is a positive or negative outcome. It’s a way of our brain evaluating and making sense of an actual event and it involves both logic and emotion.

So, in the thought experiment, those who felt fortunate feel this way because of the counterfactual or alternative that they are coming up with in which the event went much worse than it did. Maybe they were killed or many people were, so in comparison, this is a fortunate turn of events.

And for those that feel unfortunate, they are imagining an alternate scenario where a menial task like going to the bank unfolds in a way that doesn’t involve a robbery and them being shot. So, by comparison, what happened is incredibly unfortunate.

What’s important to notice though, is that whatever the counterfactual, this is all hypothetical.

But, depending on which counterfactual is picked, it will create a very different experience.

Someone could feel positive, grateful and fortunate. Or they could feel hopeless, anxious and deeply unlucky.

So how do I use counterfactuals when working with clients?

Awareness Is The First Step

While the bank robbery thought experiment helps you become aware of and describe the counterfactual, most of the time we aren’t consciously aware of this line of thinking.

We feel angry or disappointed about something. Maybe there is a vague sense of wishing for something different to have happened, but most of the time we aren’t conscious of the counterfactual to any level of detail.

So I will often ask clients, “You feel disappointed with how this went, what alternative scenario are you comparing this to? Describe to me how you would have liked it to go?”

This then gives us a chance to explore this at a deeper level. We get to flesh out the counterfactual and have a real sense of someone’s beliefs, expectations and judgements.

We can look at how realistic this counterfactual is or was.

We can explore an alternate counterfactual. If we were to imagine someone who felt like this went well (or simply feels neutral about how it went) what are they focusing on? What alternative are they imagining?

Now, the reason for doing this isn’t to instantly change someone’s mind about the situation. That doesn’t usually happen. But what it does start to demonstrate is that other perceptions of the situation are possible.

And when this kind of thing happens again, hopefully, there can at least be a pause to think “what is the alternative scenario that I’m creating that’s affecting how I feel about this situation?”

The State You’re In

As I said earlier, counterfactuals are influenced by both logic and emotion. And while we like to think of ourselves as rational beings, the state we are in has a huge impact on both the emotions and thoughts that come to mind.

This study is a simple yet elegant demonstration of the power of state. Participants were asked to stand at the top of a hill and assess its slope. Some participants stood on a skateboard while doing this, while others stood on a wooden box of the same height. To quote the article:

“Those participants that were scared (by standing on the skateboard) consciously judged the hill to be steeper relative to participants who were unafraid… These results suggest that our explicit awareness of slant is influenced by the fear associated with a potentially dangerous action.”

The state we are in has a huge impact on how we perceive a situation and the kinds of thoughts and feelings that naturally arise. This is something that I cover in great detail in my conversation with Deb Dana when we chatted about polyvagal theory.

And it’s the reason that polyvagal theory is one of the big areas I focus on when working with clients.

Polyvagal Theory

Despite the less-than-catchy name, polyvagal theory describes our nervous system and the three states it can be in.  And how profoundly these states affect our perception.

Deb tends to talk about polyvagal being a ladder and it’s an easy way to think of the concept.

At the top of the ladder is “safe and social”*. To quote Dana: “In this state, our heart rate is regulated, our breath is full, we take in the faces of friends, and we can tune in to conversations and tune out distracting noises. We see the “big picture” and connect to the world and the people in it. I might describe myself as happy, active, interested and the world as safe, fun, and peaceful“.

*The word “social” can be misleading, as it doesn’t necessarily mean you‘ll want to be hanging out with a bunch of people. What it means it that you can safely be in connection with living beings, be that animals (like pets, for example), the people you trust, and—most importantly—yourself.

Moving down the ladder, we enter into “fight and flight”. This is a survival state, so the body is on the lookout for cues of danger, rather than cues of safety.

To quote Dana: “In this state, our heart rate speeds up, our breath is short and shallow, we scan our environment looking for danger—we are “on the move.” I might describe myself as anxious or angry and feel the rush of adrenaline that makes it hard for me to be still.”

Moving to the bottom of the ladder, we enter into “shutdown”. This is also a survival state. So, again, you’ll be more acutely attuned to cues of danger instead of safety.

To quote Dana: “Here at the very bottom of the autonomic ladder, I am alone with my despair and escape into not knowing, not feeling, almost a sense of not being. I might describe myself as hopeless, abandoned, foggy, too tired to think or act and the world as empty, dead, and dark.”

(Note: These quotes are taken from Deb Dana‘s free Beginner’s Guide To Polyvagal Theory, which you can check out here.)

How Your State Affects Your Thoughts

So that is a very brief overview of polyvagal theory. And how it is so helpful is that, when we can bring awareness to our current situation, we can see how our state is leading to the kinds of counterfactuals that we create.

If something goes awry, but we are still able to stay in “safe and social,” the likelihood of seeing this event more favourably is higher. And part of this is because of the kind of counterfactual that we naturally generate to make this assessment.

If an event goes badly and we end up in “fight or flight” or “shutdown” we are much more likely to see the event as unfavourable and come up with counterfactuals that support this view.

So by understanding polyvagal theory, when something does happen and you find yourself making comparisons and feeling angry or hopeless or overwhelmed, you can pause and ask yourself “where am I on the polyvagal ladder?”

And when you notice that you are down the ladder, you can know that this is impacting your perception and experience at that moment.

Need Help?

As humans, we are wired to compare. This can be a comparison with other people, but equally, it can be a comparison of how we’d feel if a situation went differently. And counterfactuals are at the core of making this assessment.

Recovery is challenging.

You have to do things that are scary and go against patterns of behaviours that have become habituated.

Your body changes and behaves in ways that you have been trying to avoid.

And what can make this even more difficult is the expectations, judgements and counterfactuals connected to this process and how you wish it was different.

If this is something that you struggle with, I’d love to help. Because recovery isn’t just about nutritional rehabilitation, it is also about making it through the mental and emotional rollercoaster connected to these changes.

Whether you’re just starting your recovery or you’ve been making progress but know you need more support, I’d love to help.

I’m a leading expert and advocate for full recovery. I’ve been working with clients for over 15 years and understand what needs to happen to recover.

I truly believe that you can reach a place where the eating disorder is a thing of the past and I want to help you get there. If you want to fully recover and drastically increase the quality of your life, I’d love to help.

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